Combat Edge Intelligence

Dricus Du Plessis vs Gegard Mousasi

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

24-3-0Record49-9-2
MiddleweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'0"Height6'2"
76″Reach42,0"
185 lbsWeight185 lbs
Team CIT· 1712 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamTeam Jurojin

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Dricus Du PlessisNow 1853
If they win+12→ 1865
If they lose-12→ 1841
Gegard MousasiNow 1856
If they win+12→ 1868
If they lose-12→ 1844

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1779 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1732 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.18
Sig. strikes / min
3.75
49%
Strike accuracy
51%
4.33
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.21
53%
Strike defense
69%
2.22
Takedown avg.
1.59
5%
Takedown accuracy
60%
35%
Takedown defense
60%
0.71
Submission avg.
1.15

Trajectory

Dricus Du PlessisGegard Mousasi
18501900202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

9 (38%)
KO/TKO
28 (57%)
11 (46%)
Submission
12 (24%)
4 (17%)
Decision
9 (18%)

Combat Edge model read

Dricus Du Plessis64%
Gegard Mousasi 36%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Dricus Du Plessis a 64% favorite over Gegard Mousasi in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Gegard Mousasi's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1853 vs 1856), separated by just 3 points.

Gegard Mousasi enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Dricus Du Plessis finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Gegard Mousasi 82%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.