Combat Edge Intelligence

Duane Ludwig vs Jonathan Goulet

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

21-14-0Record23-12-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height6'0"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight169 lbs
Grudge Training CenterTeamTeam Legion

What's at stake

Jonathan Goulet is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Duane Ludwig carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Duane LudwigNow 1508
If they win+18→ 1526
If they lose-14→ 1494
Jonathan GouletNow 1553
If they win+10→ 1563
If they lose-14→ 1539

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1658 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1574 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.62
Sig. strikes / min
1.61
45%
Strike accuracy
42%
3.05
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2
58%
Strike defense
46%
0.43
Takedown avg.
4.17
25%
Takedown accuracy
70%
59%
Takedown defense
45%
0.14
Submission avg.
0.60

Trajectory

Duane LudwigJonathan Goulet
15001550160020082009201020112012

Win method breakdown

14 (67%)
KO/TKO
12 (52%)
2 (10%)
Submission
8 (35%)
5 (24%)
Decision
3 (13%)

Combat Edge model read

Jonathan Goulet64%
Duane Ludwig 36%Elo baseline: 56%

The Combat Edge model makes Jonathan Goulet a 64% favorite over Duane Ludwig in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).

Jonathan Goulet holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1553 to 1508, a 45-point edge.

Duane Ludwig enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Duane Ludwig finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Jonathan Goulet 87%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.