Combat Edge Intelligence

Duane Ludwig vs Nick Osipczak

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

21-14-0Record6-3-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height6'1"
TBDReachTBD
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Grudge Training CenterTeamTeam Rough House

What's at stake

Nick Osipczak is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +19 while a loss costs more — Duane Ludwig carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Duane LudwigNow 1508
If they win+19→ 1527
If they lose-13→ 1495
Nick OsipczakNow 1583
If they win+19→ 1602
If they lose-29→ 1554

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1658 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1541 · 9 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.62
Sig. strikes / min
2.83
45%
Strike accuracy
51%
3.05
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.77
58%
Strike defense
51%
0.43
Takedown avg.
1.20
25%
Takedown accuracy
45%
59%
Takedown defense
71%
0.14
Submission avg.
0.96

Trajectory

Duane LudwigNick Osipczak
15001550160020112012201320142015

Win method breakdown

14 (67%)
KO/TKO
2 (33%)
2 (10%)
Submission
4 (67%)
5 (24%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Nick Osipczak75%
Duane Ludwig 25%Elo baseline: 61%

The Combat Edge model makes Nick Osipczak a 75% favorite over Duane Ludwig in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (61%).

Nick Osipczak holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1583 to 1508, a 75-point edge.

Duane Ludwig enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Duane Ludwig finishes 76% of wins inside the distance, Nick Osipczak 100%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.