Combat Edge Intelligence

Dustin Hazelett vs Tracy Reeder

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

12-7-0Record12-6-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
6'1"Height5'10"
TBDReach73.5"
155 lbsWeight160 lbs
Team Jorge GurgelTeam

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Dustin HazelettNow 1590
If they win+16→ 1606
If they lose-16→ 1574
Tracy ReederNow 1591
If they win+16→ 1607
If they lose-16→ 1575

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1621 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1516 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.24
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
40%
Strike accuracy
TBD
3.51
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
47%
Strike defense
TBD
0.55
Takedown avg.
TBD
50%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
25%
Takedown defense
TBD
4.14
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Dustin HazelettTracy Reeder
1500155016001650200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (8%)
KO/TKO
6 (50%)
9 (75%)
Submission
5 (42%)
2 (17%)
Decision
1 (8%)

Combat Edge model read

Tracy Reeder84%
Dustin Hazelett 16%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Tracy Reeder a 84% favorite over Dustin Hazelett in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1590 vs 1591), separated by just 1 points.

Dustin Hazelett enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Dustin Hazelett finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Tracy Reeder 92%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.