Combat Edge Intelligence

Dustin Kimura vs Henry Cejudo

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-3-0Record16-6-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'4"
TBDReach64"
136 lbsWeight135 lbs
Gracie TechnicsTeamFight Ready

What's at stake

Henry Cejudo is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Dustin Kimura carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Dustin KimuraNow 1661
If they win+21→ 1682
If they lose-11→ 1650
Henry CejudoNow 1770
If they win+11→ 1781
If they lose-21→ 1749

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1566 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1782 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.33
Sig. strikes / min
3.82
21%
Strike accuracy
47%
3.82
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.46
52%
Strike defense
60%
0.93
Takedown avg.
1.84
38%
Takedown accuracy
31%
50%
Takedown defense
76%
2.18
Submission avg.
0.15

Trajectory

Dustin KimuraHenry Cejudo
16501700175018002013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

2 (18%)
KO/TKO
8 (50%)
8 (73%)
Submission
0 (0%)
1 (9%)
Decision
8 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Henry Cejudo72%
Dustin Kimura 28%Elo baseline: 65%

The Combat Edge model makes Henry Cejudo a 72% favorite over Dustin Kimura in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).

Henry Cejudo holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1770 to 1661, a 109-point edge.

Dustin Kimura enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Henry Cejudo enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Dustin Kimura finishes 91% of wins inside the distance, Henry Cejudo 50%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.