Combat Edge Intelligence

Dustin Kimura vs Mitch Gagnon

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

11-3-0Record12-5-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'6"Height5'6"
TBDReach65,5"
136 lbsWeight135 lbs
Gracie TechnicsTeamTroop MMA

What's at stake

Dustin Kimura is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Mitch Gagnon carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Dustin KimuraNow 1661
If they win+15→ 1676
If they lose-17→ 1644
Mitch GagnonNow 1631
If they win+17→ 1648
If they lose-15→ 1616

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1566 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1601 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.33
Sig. strikes / min
2.76
21%
Strike accuracy
46%
3.82
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.21
52%
Strike defense
62%
0.93
Takedown avg.
1.16
38%
Takedown accuracy
25%
50%
Takedown defense
66%
2.18
Submission avg.
1.93

Trajectory

Dustin KimuraMitch Gagnon
165017002013201420152016201720182019

Win method breakdown

2 (18%)
KO/TKO
1 (8%)
8 (73%)
Submission
10 (83%)
1 (9%)
Decision
1 (8%)

Combat Edge model read

Dustin Kimura69%
Mitch Gagnon 31%Elo baseline: 54%

The Combat Edge model makes Dustin Kimura a 69% favorite over Mitch Gagnon in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).

Dustin Kimura holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1661 to 1631, a 30-point edge.

Dustin Kimura enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Mitch Gagnon enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Dustin Kimura finishes 91% of wins inside the distance, Mitch Gagnon 92%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.