Combat Edge Intelligence

Dustin Neace vs Lincoln Strong

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Dustin Neace
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Dustin Neace

“The Beast”

25-21-1FeatherweightCC

1508Average

Tale of the tape

25-21-1Record2-1-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'9"
TBDReach-
146 lbsWeight146 lbs
Damage IncorporatedTeamManchester Top Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Dustin NeaceNow 1508
If they win+12→ 1520
If they lose-12→ 1496
Lincoln StrongNow 1516
If they win+23→ 1539
If they lose-25→ 1491

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1509 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1473 · 3 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.08
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
33%
Strike accuracy
TBD
2.66
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
57%
Strike defense
TBD
0
Takedown avg.
TBD
0%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
0%
Takedown defense
TBD
1.74
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Dustin NeaceLincoln Strong
150015502011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

5 (20%)
KO/TKO
1 (50%)
20 (80%)
Submission
1 (50%)
0 (0%)
Decision
0 (0%)

Combat Edge model read

Lincoln Strong71%
Dustin Neace 29%Elo baseline: 51%

The Combat Edge model makes Lincoln Strong a 71% favorite over Dustin Neace in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1508 vs 1516), separated by just 8 points.

Dustin Neace finishes 100% of wins inside the distance.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.