Combat Edge Intelligence

Dustin Ortiz vs Jesus Aguilar

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

20-9-0Record12-4-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'5"Height5'3"
65,0"Reach62"
125 lbsWeight128 lbs
Combat Sports AcademyTeamVictory Fight Club

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Dustin OrtizNow 1687
If they win+12→ 1699
If they lose-12→ 1675
Jesus AguilarNow 1685
If they win+16→ 1701
If they lose-16→ 1669

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1680 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1650 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.94
Sig. strikes / min
2.54
45%
Strike accuracy
38%
2.17
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.29
56%
Strike defense
61%
3.01
Takedown avg.
1.52
36%
Takedown accuracy
30%
53%
Takedown defense
45%
0.09
Submission avg.
1.14

Trajectory

Dustin OrtizJesus Aguilar
165017002020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

8 (40%)
KO/TKO
1 (8%)
5 (25%)
Submission
7 (58%)
7 (35%)
Decision
4 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Jesus Aguilar66%
Dustin Ortiz 34%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Jesus Aguilar a 66% favorite over Dustin Ortiz in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Dustin Ortiz's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1687 vs 1685), separated by just 2 points.

Dustin Ortiz finishes 65% of wins inside the distance, Jesus Aguilar 67%.

Dustin Ortiz carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.