Combat Edge Intelligence

Dustin Ortiz vs Justin Scoggins

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

20-9-0Record15-7-0
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'5"Height5'7"
65,0"Reach66,0"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Combat Sports AcademyTeamRevolution Mixed Martial Arts

What's at stake

Dustin Ortiz is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Justin Scoggins carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Dustin OrtizNow 1687
If they win+10→ 1697
If they lose-14→ 1673
Justin ScogginsNow 1619
If they win+19→ 1638
If they lose-13→ 1606

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1680 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1575 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.94
Sig. strikes / min
3.56
45%
Strike accuracy
52%
2.17
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.16
56%
Strike defense
56%
3.01
Takedown avg.
3.42
36%
Takedown accuracy
64%
53%
Takedown defense
83%
0.09
Submission avg.
0.45

Trajectory

Dustin OrtizJustin Scoggins
16001650170020202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

8 (40%)
KO/TKO
7 (47%)
5 (25%)
Submission
2 (13%)
7 (35%)
Decision
6 (40%)

Combat Edge model read

Dustin Ortiz66%
Justin Scoggins 34%Elo baseline: 60%

The Combat Edge model makes Dustin Ortiz a 66% favorite over Justin Scoggins in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).

Dustin Ortiz holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1687 to 1619, a 68-point edge.

Dustin Ortiz finishes 65% of wins inside the distance, Justin Scoggins 60%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.