Combat Edge Intelligence

Dustin Ortiz vs Matheus Nicolau

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

20-9-0Record19-5-1
FlyweightDivisionFlyweight
5'5"Height5'6"
65,0"Reach66"
125 lbsWeight125 lbs
Combat Sports AcademyTeamNova Uniao

What's at stake

Dustin Ortiz is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Matheus Nicolau carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Dustin OrtizNow 1687
If they win+11→ 1698
If they lose-13→ 1674
Matheus NicolauNow 1663
If they win+17→ 1680
If they lose-15→ 1648

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1680 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1646 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.94
Sig. strikes / min
3.31
45%
Strike accuracy
52%
2.17
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.98
56%
Strike defense
66%
3.01
Takedown avg.
1.22
36%
Takedown accuracy
43%
53%
Takedown defense
90%
0.09
Submission avg.
0.85

Trajectory

Dustin OrtizMatheus Nicolau
1650170020202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

8 (40%)
KO/TKO
5 (26%)
5 (25%)
Submission
5 (26%)
7 (35%)
Decision
9 (47%)

Combat Edge model read

The Combat Edge model rates this a near coin-flip, splitting Dustin Ortiz and Matheus Nicolau within a point of even.

Dustin Ortiz holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1687 to 1663, a 24-point edge.

Matheus Nicolau enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Dustin Ortiz finishes 65% of wins inside the distance, Matheus Nicolau 53%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.