Combat Edge Intelligence

Dustin Ortiz vs Wilson Reis

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

20-9-0Record28-14-0
FlyweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'5"Height5'4"
65,0"Reach65,0"
125 lbsWeight145 lbs
Combat Sports AcademyTeamBrazilian Jiu-Jitsu United

What's at stake

Dustin Ortiz is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Wilson Reis carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Dustin OrtizNow 1687
If they win+11→ 1698
If they lose-13→ 1674
Wilson ReisNow 1653
If they win+13→ 1666
If they lose-11→ 1642

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1680 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1561 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

2.94
Sig. strikes / min
1.83
45%
Strike accuracy
30%
2.17
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.04
56%
Strike defense
56%
3.01
Takedown avg.
5.15
36%
Takedown accuracy
43%
53%
Takedown defense
47%
0.09
Submission avg.
0.61

Trajectory

Dustin OrtizWilson Reis
16501700202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

8 (40%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
5 (25%)
Submission
13 (46%)
7 (35%)
Decision
15 (54%)

Combat Edge model read

Dustin Ortiz75%
Wilson Reis 25%Elo baseline: 55%

The Combat Edge model makes Dustin Ortiz a 75% favorite over Wilson Reis in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).

Dustin Ortiz holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1687 to 1653, a 34-point edge.

Wilson Reis enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Dustin Ortiz finishes 65% of wins inside the distance, Wilson Reis 46%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.