Dustin Pague vs Jared Papazian
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-11-0Record20-14-0
LightweightDivisionBantamweight
5'9"Height5'8"
TBDReachTBD
152 lbsWeight135 lbs
Disciple MMATeamTeam Hayastan
What's at stake
Jared Papazian is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Dustin Pague carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+18→ 1523
If they lose-14→ 1491
If they win+10→ 1560
If they lose-14→ 1536
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1548 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1540 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Dustin PagueJared Papazian
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Jared Papazian53%
Dustin Pague 47%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Jared Papazian a 53% favorite over Dustin Pague in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Jared Papazian holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1550 to 1505, a 45-point edge.
Jared Papazian enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Dustin Pague finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Jared Papazian 40%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.