Combat Edge Intelligence

Dustin Pague vs Ken Stone

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Dustin Pague
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Dustin Pague

“The Disciple”

12-11-0LightweightWCC

1506Average

Tale of the tape

12-11-0Record11-4-0
LightweightDivisionBantamweight
5'9"Height5'8"
TBDReachTBD
152 lbsWeight135 lbs
Disciple MMATeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

Ken Stone is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Dustin Pague carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Dustin PagueNow 1506
If they win+21→ 1527
If they lose-11→ 1495
Ken StoneNow 1629
If they win+11→ 1640
If they lose-21→ 1608

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1550 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1544 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.65
Sig. strikes / min
3.85
54%
Strike accuracy
49%
2.96
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.90
41%
Strike defense
49%
1.03
Takedown avg.
1.24
44%
Takedown accuracy
33%
56%
Takedown defense
60%
2.57
Submission avg.
0.62

Trajectory

Dustin PagueKen Stone
150015501600165020112012201320142015

Win method breakdown

3 (25%)
KO/TKO
4 (36%)
9 (75%)
Submission
6 (55%)
0 (0%)
Decision
1 (9%)

Combat Edge model read

Ken Stone69%
Dustin Pague 31%Elo baseline: 67%

The Combat Edge model makes Ken Stone a 69% favorite over Dustin Pague in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (67%).

Ken Stone holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1629 to 1506, a 123-point edge.

Dustin Pague finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Ken Stone 91%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.