Dustin Pague vs Kyoji Horiguchi
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-11-0Record36-6-0
LightweightDivisionBantamweight
5'9"Height5'5"
TBDReach66"
152 lbsWeight134 lbs
Disciple MMATeamAmerican Top Team
What's at stake
Kyoji Horiguchi is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +4 while a loss costs more — Dustin Pague carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+27→ 1533
If they lose-5→ 1501
If they win+4→ 1804
If they lose-20→ 1780
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1550 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1646 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Dustin PagueKyoji Horiguchi
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kyoji Horiguchi92%
Dustin Pague 8%Elo baseline: 84%
The Combat Edge model makes Kyoji Horiguchi a 92% favorite over Dustin Pague in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (84%).
Kyoji Horiguchi holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1800 to 1506, a 294-point edge.
Dustin Pague finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Kyoji Horiguchi 58%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.