Dustin Pague vs Sebastian Polanco
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
12-11-0Record3-3-1
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'9"
TBDReach-
152 lbsWeight145 lbs
Disciple MMATeamDemon Team
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+16→ 1521
If they lose-16→ 1489
If they win+24→ 1525
If they lose-24→ 1477
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1548 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1520 · 6 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Dustin PagueSebastian Polanco
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Sebastian Polanco51%
Dustin Pague 49%Elo baseline: 49%
The Combat Edge model makes Sebastian Polanco a 51% favorite over Dustin Pague in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Dustin Pague's way (49%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1505 vs 1501), separated by just 4 points.
Sebastian Polanco enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Dustin Pague finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Sebastian Polanco 33%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.