Combat Edge Intelligence

Dustin Pague vs Shane Campbell

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Dustin Pague
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Dustin Pague

“The Disciple”

12-11-0LightweightWCC

1506Average

Tale of the tape

12-11-0Record5-5-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'7"
TBDReach71"
152 lbsWeight140 lbs
Disciple MMATeamGreat Britain Top Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Dustin PagueNow 1506
If they win+16→ 1522
If they lose-16→ 1490
Shane CampbellNow 1508
If they win+16→ 1524
If they lose-16→ 1492

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1550 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1521 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.65
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
54%
Strike accuracy
TBD
2.96
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
41%
Strike defense
TBD
1.03
Takedown avg.
TBD
44%
Takedown accuracy
TBD
56%
Takedown defense
TBD
2.57
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Dustin PagueShane Campbell
150015502014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

3 (25%)
KO/TKO
1 (20%)
9 (75%)
Submission
0 (0%)
0 (0%)
Decision
4 (80%)

Combat Edge model read

Shane Campbell60%
Dustin Pague 40%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Shane Campbell a 60% favorite over Dustin Pague in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1506 vs 1508), separated by just 2 points.

Dustin Pague finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Shane Campbell 20%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.