Dustin Poirier vs Erik Koch
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
Compare any two fighters →
Tale of the tape
30-10-0Record16-6-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'10"
72″Reach71,5"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamRoufusport
What's at stake
Dustin Poirier is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +7 while a loss costs more — Erik Koch carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+7→ 1819
If they lose-17→ 1795
If they win+17→ 1661
If they lose-7→ 1637
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1814 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1632 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Dustin PoirierErik Koch
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Dustin Poirier83%
Erik Koch 17%Elo baseline: 72%
The Combat Edge model makes Dustin Poirier a 83% favorite over Erik Koch in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (72%).
Dustin Poirier holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1812 to 1644, a 168-point edge.
Dustin Poirier enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Dustin Poirier finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Erik Koch 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.