Combat Edge Intelligence

Dustin Poirier vs Grant Dawson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

30-10-0Record24-3-1
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'10"
72″Reach72"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamAmerican Top Team

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Dustin PoirierNow 1812
If they win+12→ 1824
If they lose-12→ 1800
Grant DawsonNow 1802
If they win+12→ 1814
If they lose-12→ 1790

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1814 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1723 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.30
Sig. strikes / min
3.14
51%
Strike accuracy
51%
4.33
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.14
53%
Strike defense
45%
1.24
Takedown avg.
3.58
36%
Takedown accuracy
0%
64%
Takedown defense
67%
1.28
Submission avg.
1.36

Trajectory

Dustin PoirierGrant Dawson
180018502023202420252026

Win method breakdown

15 (50%)
KO/TKO
5 (21%)
8 (27%)
Submission
14 (58%)
7 (23%)
Decision
5 (21%)

Combat Edge model read

Grant Dawson70%
Dustin Poirier 30%Elo baseline: 49%

The Combat Edge model makes Grant Dawson a 70% favorite over Dustin Poirier in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Dustin Poirier's way (49%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1812 vs 1802), separated by just 10 points.

Dustin Poirier enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Dustin Poirier finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Grant Dawson 79%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.