Dustin Poirier vs Islam Makhachev
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
30-10-0Record28-1-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'10"
72″Reach70"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamEagles MMA
What's at stake
Islam Makhachev is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Dustin Poirier carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+16→ 1828
If they lose-8→ 1804
If they win+8→ 1930
If they lose-16→ 1906
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1814 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1785 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Dustin PoirierIslam Makhachev
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Islam Makhachev83%
Dustin Poirier 17%Elo baseline: 65%
The Combat Edge model makes Islam Makhachev a 83% favorite over Dustin Poirier in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (65%).
Islam Makhachev holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1922 to 1812, a 110-point edge.
Dustin Poirier enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Islam Makhachev enters on a 10-fight win streak.
Dustin Poirier finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Islam Makhachev 64%.
Dustin Poirier and Islam Makhachev share 2 common opponents: Charles Oliveira and Dan Hooker.
Dustin Poirier carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.