Dustin Poirier vs Joe Duffy
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
30-10-0Record16-5-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'10"
72″Reach73.00
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamThe MMA Clinic
What's at stake
Dustin Poirier is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +5 while a loss costs more — Joe Duffy carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+5→ 1817
If they lose-19→ 1793
If they win+25→ 1602
If they lose-7→ 1570
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1813 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1627 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Dustin PoirierJoe Duffy
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Dustin Poirier86%
Joe Duffy 14%Elo baseline: 79%
The Combat Edge model makes Dustin Poirier a 86% favorite over Joe Duffy in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (79%).
Dustin Poirier holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1812 to 1577, a 235-point edge.
Dustin Poirier enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Joe Duffy enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Dustin Poirier finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Joe Duffy 88%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.