Combat Edge Intelligence

Dustin Poirier vs Michael Johnson

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

30-10-0Record24-20-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'10"
72″Reach73"
155 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamKill Cliff FC

What's at stake

Dustin Poirier is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Michael Johnson carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Dustin PoirierNow 1812
If they win+6→ 1818
If they lose-18→ 1794
Michael JohnsonNow 1613
If they win+18→ 1631
If they lose-6→ 1607

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1814 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1666 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

5.30
Sig. strikes / min
4.28
51%
Strike accuracy
40%
4.33
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.79
53%
Strike defense
59%
1.24
Takedown avg.
0.58
36%
Takedown accuracy
39%
64%
Takedown defense
81%
1.28
Submission avg.
0.04

Trajectory

Dustin PoirierMichael Johnson
1600170018002023202420252026

Win method breakdown

15 (50%)
KO/TKO
10 (42%)
8 (27%)
Submission
2 (8%)
7 (23%)
Decision
12 (50%)

Combat Edge model read

Dustin Poirier79%
Michael Johnson 21%Elo baseline: 76%

The Combat Edge model makes Dustin Poirier a 79% favorite over Michael Johnson in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (76%).

Dustin Poirier holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1812 to 1613, a 199-point edge.

Dustin Poirier enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Dustin Poirier finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Michael Johnson 50%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.