Dustin Poirier vs Pablo Garza
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
30-10-0Record12-4-0
LightweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height6'1"
72″ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight145 lbs
American Top TeamTeamAcademy of Combat Arts
What's at stake
Dustin Poirier is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Pablo Garza carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+6→ 1818
If they lose-18→ 1794
If they win+25→ 1631
If they lose-7→ 1599
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1814 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1543 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Dustin PoirierPablo Garza
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Dustin Poirier84%
Pablo Garza 16%Elo baseline: 77%
The Combat Edge model makes Dustin Poirier a 84% favorite over Pablo Garza in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (77%).
Dustin Poirier holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1812 to 1606, a 206-point edge.
Dustin Poirier enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Dustin Poirier finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Pablo Garza 75%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.