Dustin Poirier vs Shinya Aoki
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
30-10-0Record48-11-0
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'11"
72″ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight154 lbs
American Top TeamTeamParaestra Tokyo
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1824
If they lose-12→ 1800
If they win+12→ 1821
If they lose-12→ 1797
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1814 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1592 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Dustin PoirierShinya Aoki
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Dustin Poirier73%
Shinya Aoki 27%Elo baseline: 50%
The Combat Edge model makes Dustin Poirier a 73% favorite over Shinya Aoki in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1812 vs 1809), separated by just 3 points.
Dustin Poirier enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Dustin Poirier finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Shinya Aoki 76%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.