Dustin Poirier vs Yancy Medeiros
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
30-10-0Record16-9-0
LightweightDivisionWelterweight
5'9"Height5'10"
72″Reach75"
155 lbsWeight165 lbs
American Top TeamTeamTeam Hakuilua
What's at stake
Dustin Poirier is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Yancy Medeiros carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+6→ 1818
If they lose-18→ 1794
If they win+24→ 1634
If they lose-8→ 1602
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1814 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1672 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Dustin PoirierYancy Medeiros
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Dustin Poirier82%
Yancy Medeiros 18%Elo baseline: 76%
The Combat Edge model makes Dustin Poirier a 82% favorite over Yancy Medeiros in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (76%).
Dustin Poirier holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1812 to 1610, a 202-point edge.
Dustin Poirier enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Dustin Poirier finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Yancy Medeiros 75%.
Yancy Medeiros carries a 3-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.