Dwight Grant vs Francisco Trinaldo
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
11-6-0Record29-9-0
MiddleweightDivisionWelterweight
6'1"Height5'8"
76"Reach70"
185 lbsWeight170 lbs
Alliance MMATeamBrazilian TKO
What's at stake
Francisco Trinaldo is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Dwight Grant carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+21→ 1664
If they lose-11→ 1632
If they win+8→ 1774
If they lose-16→ 1750
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1662 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1693 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Dwight GrantFrancisco Trinaldo
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Francisco Trinaldo66%
Dwight Grant 34%Elo baseline: 67%
The Combat Edge model makes Francisco Trinaldo a 66% favorite over Dwight Grant in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (67%).
Francisco Trinaldo holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1766 to 1643, a 123-point edge.
Dwight Grant enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Dwight Grant finishes 64% of wins inside the distance, Francisco Trinaldo 52%.
Dwight Grant carries a 6-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.