Dylan Smerillo vs Felipe Martinez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
5-4-0Record6-6-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'9"Height5'7"
-Reach-
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
3sotericTeamKame House Training Center
What's at stake
Dylan Smerillo is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +21 while a loss costs more — Felipe Martinez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+21→ 1557
If they lose-27→ 1509
If they win+18→ 1512
If they lose-14→ 1480
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1504 · 9 fightsPre-fight Elo1505 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Dylan SmerilloFelipe Martinez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Dylan Smerillo84%
Felipe Martinez 16%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Dylan Smerillo a 84% favorite over Felipe Martinez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Dylan Smerillo holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1536 to 1494, a 42-point edge.
Felipe Martinez enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Dylan Smerillo finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Felipe Martinez 83%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.