Ebrahem Mahmoud vs Gerric Hayes
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
0-1-0Record8-11-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"Height5'9"
75''ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight171 lbs
Diesel Fighting AcademyTeamBonafyde MMA
What's at stake
Ebrahem Mahmoud is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +23 while a loss costs more — Gerric Hayes carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+23→ 1494
If they lose-25→ 1446
If they win+17→ 1470
If they lose-15→ 1438
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1500 · 1 fightsPre-fight Elo1517 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ebrahem MahmoudGerric Hayes
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ebrahem Mahmoud72%
Gerric Hayes 28%Elo baseline: 53%
The Combat Edge model makes Ebrahem Mahmoud a 72% favorite over Gerric Hayes in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (53%).
Ebrahem Mahmoud holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1471 to 1453, a 18-point edge.
Gerric Hayes enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Gerric Hayes 100%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.