Combat Edge Intelligence

Ebrahem Mahmoud vs Josh Neal

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Josh Neal
us

Josh Neal

“El Tigre”

6-5-0WelterweightCAMMA

1419Developing

Tale of the tape

0-1-0Record6-5-0
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
6'0"HeightTBD
75''ReachTBD
170 lbsWeight160 lbs
Diesel Fighting AcademyTeam

What's at stake

Ebrahem Mahmoud is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +20 while a loss costs more — Josh Neal carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Ebrahem MahmoudNow 1471
If they win+20→ 1491
If they lose-28→ 1443
Josh NealNow 1419
If they win+18→ 1437
If they lose-14→ 1405

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1500 · 1 fightsPre-fight Elo1493 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Ebrahem MahmoudJosh Neal
1400145020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

0 (0%)
KO/TKO
2 (33%)
0 (0%)
Submission
2 (33%)
0 (0%)
Decision
2 (33%)

Combat Edge model read

Ebrahem Mahmoud79%
Josh Neal 21%Elo baseline: 57%

The Combat Edge model makes Ebrahem Mahmoud a 79% favorite over Josh Neal in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (57%).

Ebrahem Mahmoud holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1471 to 1419, a 52-point edge.

Josh Neal enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Josh Neal 67%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.