Ed Herman vs Jason MacDonald
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
26-16-0Record25-16-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'2"
TBDReachTBD
205 lbsWeight185 lbs
American Top Team Portland· 1662 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamPure Fitness
What's at stake
Ed Herman is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Jason MacDonald carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1652
If they lose-14→ 1628
If they win+14→ 1601
If they lose-10→ 1577
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1640 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1600 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Ed HermanJason MacDonald
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ed Herman76%
Jason MacDonald 24%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Ed Herman a 76% favorite over Jason MacDonald in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Ed Herman holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1642 to 1587, a 55-point edge.
Ed Herman enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Jason MacDonald enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Ed Herman finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Jason MacDonald 88%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.