Ed Herman vs Patrick Cummins
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
26-16-0Record10-7-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
6'2"Height6'2"
TBDReachTBD
205 lbsWeight205 lbs
American Top Team Portland· 1659 avg Elo · 3 ratedTeamReign MMA
What's at stake
Ed Herman is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Patrick Cummins carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1653
If they lose-13→ 1629
If they win+18→ 1620
If they lose-14→ 1588
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1641 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1667 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ed HermanPatrick Cummins
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ed Herman53%
Patrick Cummins 47%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Ed Herman a 53% favorite over Patrick Cummins in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Ed Herman holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1642 to 1602, a 40-point edge.
Ed Herman enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Patrick Cummins enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Ed Herman finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Patrick Cummins 60%.
Ed Herman and Patrick Cummins share 1 common opponent: Gian Villante.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.