Ed Herman vs Rafael Natal
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
26-16-0Record21-9-1
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'0"
TBDReach76,0"
205 lbsWeight185 lbs
American Top Team PortlandTeamRenzo Gracie Jiu-Jitsu
What's at stake
Rafael Natal is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Ed Herman carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1655
If they lose-11→ 1631
If they win+11→ 1684
If they lose-13→ 1660
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1640 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1660 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ed HermanRafael Natal
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Rafael Natal60%
Ed Herman 40%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Rafael Natal a 60% favorite over Ed Herman in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Rafael Natal holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1673 to 1642, a 31-point edge.
Ed Herman enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Rafael Natal enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Ed Herman finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Rafael Natal 57%.
Ed Herman and Rafael Natal share 1 common opponent: Tim Boetsch.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.