Ed Herman vs Thales Leites
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
26-16-0Record28-9-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'1"
TBDReach78,0"
205 lbsWeight185 lbs
American Top Team PortlandTeamNova Uniao
What's at stake
Thales Leites is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Ed Herman carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1657
If they lose-9→ 1633
If they win+9→ 1753
If they lose-15→ 1729
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1640 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1713 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ed HermanThales Leites
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Thales Leites78%
Ed Herman 22%Elo baseline: 64%
The Combat Edge model makes Thales Leites a 78% favorite over Ed Herman in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (64%).
Thales Leites holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1744 to 1642, a 102-point edge.
Ed Herman enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Ed Herman finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Thales Leites 68%.
Ed Herman and Thales Leites share 1 common opponent: Tim Boetsch.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.