Ed Herman vs Trevor Smith
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
26-16-0Record15-10-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
6'2"Height6'3"
TBDReach41,5"
205 lbsWeight185 lbs
American Top Team PortlandTeamRing Demon Jiu-Jitsu
What's at stake
Ed Herman is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Trevor Smith carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+11→ 1653
If they lose-13→ 1629
If they win+18→ 1618
If they lose-14→ 1586
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1640 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1662 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Ed HermanTrevor Smith
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Ed Herman53%
Trevor Smith 47%Elo baseline: 56%
The Combat Edge model makes Ed Herman a 53% favorite over Trevor Smith in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (56%).
Ed Herman holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1642 to 1600, a 42-point edge.
Ed Herman enters on a 2-fight loss streak.
Trevor Smith enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Ed Herman finishes 81% of wins inside the distance, Trevor Smith 67%.
Ed Herman and Trevor Smith share 1 common opponent: Zak Cummings.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.