Eddie Alvarez vs Gilbert Melendez
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
30-8-0Record22-8-0
WelterweightDivisionLightweight
5'9"Height5'9"
69,0"Reach73,0"
170 lbsWeight155 lbs
Ricardo Almeida Jiu-JitsuTeamSkrap Pack
What's at stake
Eddie Alvarez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Gilbert Melendez carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1806
If they lose-14→ 1782
If they win+14→ 1754
If they lose-10→ 1730
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1714 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1727 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Eddie AlvarezGilbert Melendez
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Eddie Alvarez67%
Gilbert Melendez 33%Elo baseline: 58%
The Combat Edge model makes Eddie Alvarez a 67% favorite over Gilbert Melendez in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (58%).
Eddie Alvarez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1796 to 1740, a 56-point edge.
Gilbert Melendez enters on a 5-fight loss streak.
Eddie Alvarez finishes 80% of wins inside the distance, Gilbert Melendez 55%.
Eddie Alvarez and Gilbert Melendez share 1 common opponent: Anthony Pettis.
Gilbert Melendez carries a 4-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.