Eddie Wineland vs John Castañeda
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-16-1Record21-8-1
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'8"Height5'7"
69"Reach71"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Duneland Vale TudoTeamThe Academy
What's at stake
John Castañeda is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Eddie Wineland carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+15→ 1628
If they lose-9→ 1604
If they win+9→ 1705
If they lose-15→ 1681
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1660 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1667 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Eddie WinelandJohn Castañeda
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
John Castañeda84%
Eddie Wineland 16%Elo baseline: 62%
The Combat Edge model makes John Castañeda a 84% favorite over Eddie Wineland in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).
John Castañeda holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1696 to 1613, a 83-point edge.
Eddie Wineland enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Eddie Wineland finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, John Castañeda 67%.
John Castañeda carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.