Eddie Wineland vs John Castañeda
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-16-1Record21-9-1
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'8"Height5'7"
69"Reach71"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
What's at stake
John Castañeda is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Eddie Wineland carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+14→ 1626
If they lose-10→ 1602
If they win+10→ 1694
If they lose-14→ 1670
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1659 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1669 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Eddie WinelandJohn Castañeda
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
John Castañeda76%
Eddie Wineland 24%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes John Castañeda a 76% favorite over Eddie Wineland in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
John Castañeda holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1684 to 1612, a 72-point edge.
Eddie Wineland enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Eddie Wineland finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, John Castañeda 67%.
John Castañeda carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.