Combat Edge Intelligence

Eddie Wineland vs Renan Barão

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Renan Barão
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Renan Barão

“The Baron”

34-10-0BantamweightGFL

1598Solid

Tale of the tape

24-16-1Record34-10-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'8"Height5'7"
69"Reach70"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Duneland Vale TudoTeamPitbull Brothers

What's at stake

Eddie Wineland is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Renan Barão carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Eddie WinelandNow 1613
If they win+11→ 1624
If they lose-13→ 1600
Renan BarãoNow 1598
If they win+17→ 1615
If they lose-15→ 1583

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1660 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1643 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.40
Sig. strikes / min
3.78
29%
Strike accuracy
37%
3.76
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.90
68%
Strike defense
58%
0.34
Takedown avg.
1.49
33%
Takedown accuracy
42%
86%
Takedown defense
91%
0.14
Submission avg.
0.54

Trajectory

Eddie WinelandRenan Barão
16001650202120222023

Win method breakdown

15 (65%)
KO/TKO
8 (24%)
4 (17%)
Submission
15 (44%)
4 (17%)
Decision
11 (32%)

Combat Edge model read

Eddie Wineland51%
Renan Barão 49%Elo baseline: 52%

The Combat Edge model makes Eddie Wineland a 51% favorite over Renan Barão in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).

Eddie Wineland holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1613 to 1598, a 15-point edge.

Eddie Wineland enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Renan Barão enters on a 6-fight loss streak.

Eddie Wineland finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Renan Barão 68%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.