Combat Edge Intelligence

Eddie Wineland vs Sean O'Malley

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

24-16-1Record20-3-0
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'8"Height5'11"
69"Reach72″
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Duneland Vale TudoTeamMMA Lab

What's at stake

Sean O'Malley is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +8 while a loss costs more — Eddie Wineland carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Eddie WinelandNow 1613
If they win+18→ 1631
If they lose-6→ 1607
Sean O'MalleyNow 1815
If they win+8→ 1823
If they lose-24→ 1791

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1660 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1750 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.40
Sig. strikes / min
6.05
29%
Strike accuracy
61%
3.76
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.40
68%
Strike defense
60%
0.34
Takedown avg.
0.24
33%
Takedown accuracy
43%
86%
Takedown defense
61%
0.14
Submission avg.
0.24

Trajectory

Eddie WinelandSean O'Malley
16001650170017501800202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

15 (65%)
KO/TKO
13 (65%)
4 (17%)
Submission
1 (5%)
4 (17%)
Decision
6 (30%)

Combat Edge model read

Sean O'Malley92%
Eddie Wineland 8%Elo baseline: 76%

The Combat Edge model makes Sean O'Malley a 92% favorite over Eddie Wineland in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (76%).

Sean O'Malley holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1815 to 1613, a 202-point edge.

Eddie Wineland enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Sean O'Malley enters on a 2-fight win streak.

Eddie Wineland finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Sean O'Malley 70%.

Sean O'Malley carries a 3-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.