Combat Edge Intelligence

Eddie Wineland vs Takeya Mizugaki

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

24-16-1Record23-14-2
BantamweightDivisionBantamweight
5'8"Height5'7"
69"Reach68,0"
135 lbsWeight135 lbs
Duneland Vale TudoTeamHakkei Gym

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Eddie WinelandNow 1613
If they win+12→ 1625
If they lose-12→ 1601
Takeya MizugakiNow 1612
If they win+12→ 1624
If they lose-12→ 1600

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1660 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1615 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.40
Sig. strikes / min
3.37
29%
Strike accuracy
37%
3.76
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.27
68%
Strike defense
58%
0.34
Takedown avg.
1.46
33%
Takedown accuracy
58%
86%
Takedown defense
70%
0.14
Submission avg.
0.06

Trajectory

Eddie WinelandTakeya Mizugaki
16001650201720182019202020212022

Win method breakdown

15 (65%)
KO/TKO
5 (22%)
4 (17%)
Submission
1 (4%)
4 (17%)
Decision
17 (74%)

Combat Edge model read

Eddie Wineland53%
Takeya Mizugaki 47%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Eddie Wineland a 53% favorite over Takeya Mizugaki in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1613 vs 1612), separated by just 1 points.

Eddie Wineland enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Eddie Wineland finishes 83% of wins inside the distance, Takeya Mizugaki 26%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.