Combat Edge Intelligence

Edens Charles vs Marcello Mello

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

2-1-0Record27-14-1
LightweightDivisionLight Heavyweight
5'10"Height6'1"
-ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight205 lbs
Animals MMATeamUniversidade da Luta

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Edens CharlesNow 1527
If they win+24→ 1551
If they lose-24→ 1503
Marcello MelloNow 1530
If they win+24→ 1554
If they lose-24→ 1506

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1500 · 3 fightsPre-fight Elo1498 · 1 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
TBD
TBD
Strike accuracy
TBD
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
TBD
TBD
Strike defense
TBD
TBD
Takedown avg.
TBD
TBD
Takedown accuracy
TBD
TBD
Takedown defense
TBD
TBD
Submission avg.
TBD

Trajectory

Edens CharlesMarcello Mello
15001550200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (50%)
KO/TKO
21 (78%)
1 (50%)
Submission
1 (4%)
0 (0%)
Decision
5 (19%)

Combat Edge model read

Edens Charles63%
Marcello Mello 37%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Edens Charles a 63% favorite over Marcello Mello in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Marcello Mello's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1527 vs 1530), separated by just 3 points.

Marcello Mello 81%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.