Combat Edge Intelligence

Edgar Garcia vs Hector Urbina

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

14-5-0Record17-11-1
WelterweightDivisionWelterweight
5'10"Height6'0"
39,0"Reach73,0"
170 lbsWeight170 lbs
Arizona Athletic ClubTeamTBD

What's at stake

Edgar Garcia is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +15 while a loss costs more — Hector Urbina carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Edgar GarciaNow 1598
If they win+15→ 1613
If they lose-17→ 1581
Hector UrbinaNow 1566
If they win+13→ 1579
If they lose-11→ 1555

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1525 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1541 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

3.16
Sig. strikes / min
0.97
30%
Strike accuracy
39%
4.23
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.44
60%
Strike defense
39%
2.21
Takedown avg.
0
57%
Takedown accuracy
0%
50%
Takedown defense
38%
0.55
Submission avg.
3.82

Trajectory

Edgar GarciaHector Urbina
1550160016502014201520162017

Win method breakdown

8 (57%)
KO/TKO
9 (56%)
4 (29%)
Submission
5 (31%)
2 (14%)
Decision
2 (13%)

Combat Edge model read

Edgar Garcia60%
Hector Urbina 40%Elo baseline: 55%

The Combat Edge model makes Edgar Garcia a 60% favorite over Hector Urbina in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (55%).

Edgar Garcia holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1598 to 1566, a 32-point edge.

Edgar Garcia enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Hector Urbina enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Edgar Garcia finishes 86% of wins inside the distance, Hector Urbina 88%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.