Edil Esengulov vs Paulo Costa
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
26-6-1Record16-4-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionMiddleweight
5'6"Height6'0"
-Reach72"
187 lbsWeight185 lbs
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1759
If they lose-12→ 1735
If they win+16→ 1770
If they lose-16→ 1738
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1578 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1747 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Edil EsengulovPaulo Costa
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Paulo Costa67%
Edil Esengulov 33%Elo baseline: 51%
The Combat Edge model makes Paulo Costa a 67% favorite over Edil Esengulov in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (51%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1747 vs 1754), separated by just 7 points.
Edil Esengulov enters on a 4-fight win streak.
Paulo Costa enters on a 2-fight win streak.
Edil Esengulov finishes 77% of wins inside the distance, Paulo Costa 81%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.