Combat Edge Intelligence

Edmund Kwan vs Satoru Kitaoka

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

5-2-0Record45-27-10
LightweightDivisionLightweight
5'8"Height5'6"
71"ReachTBD
155 lbsWeight156 lbs
American Kickboxing Academy· 1641 avg Elo · 5 ratedTeamLotus Setagaya

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Edmund KwanNow 1561
If they win+24→ 1585
If they lose-24→ 1537
Satoru KitaokaNow 1560
If they win+12→ 1572
If they lose-12→ 1548

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1507 · 7 fightsPre-fight Elo1493 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

TBD
Sig. strikes / min
4.05
TBD
Strike accuracy
48%
TBD
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
3.05
TBD
Strike defense
64%
TBD
Takedown avg.
1.38
TBD
Takedown accuracy
59%
TBD
Takedown defense
73%
TBD
Submission avg.
0.32

Trajectory

Edmund KwanSatoru Kitaoka
1550160020222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

1 (20%)
KO/TKO
0 (0%)
4 (80%)
Submission
22 (49%)
0 (0%)
Decision
23 (51%)

Combat Edge model read

Edmund Kwan73%
Satoru Kitaoka 27%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Edmund Kwan a 73% favorite over Satoru Kitaoka in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1561 vs 1560), separated by just 1 points.

Satoru Kitaoka enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Edmund Kwan finishes 100% of wins inside the distance, Satoru Kitaoka 49%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.