Combat Edge Intelligence

Ednaldo Oliveira vs Gabriel Gonzaga

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

22-13-1Record17-12-0
Light HeavyweightDivisionHeavyweight
6'7"Height6'2"
TBDReach42,0"
206 lbsWeight264 lbs
Champion TeamTeamTeam Link

What's at stake

Gabriel Gonzaga is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +9 while a loss costs more — Ednaldo Oliveira carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Ednaldo OliveiraNow 1530
If they win+15→ 1545
If they lose-9→ 1521
Gabriel GonzagaNow 1612
If they win+9→ 1621
If they lose-15→ 1597

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1500 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1682 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

1.03
Sig. strikes / min
2.12
22%
Strike accuracy
45%
1.80
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.94
53%
Strike defense
57%
0
Takedown avg.
2.80
0%
Takedown accuracy
39%
43%
Takedown defense
67%
0
Submission avg.
1.10

Trajectory

Ednaldo OliveiraGabriel Gonzaga
155016001650201620172018201920202021202220232024

Win method breakdown

11 (50%)
KO/TKO
9 (53%)
2 (9%)
Submission
7 (41%)
9 (41%)
Decision
1 (6%)

Combat Edge model read

Gabriel Gonzaga72%
Ednaldo Oliveira 28%Elo baseline: 62%

The Combat Edge model makes Gabriel Gonzaga a 72% favorite over Ednaldo Oliveira in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (62%).

Gabriel Gonzaga holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1612 to 1530, a 82-point edge.

Gabriel Gonzaga enters on a 2-fight loss streak.

Ednaldo Oliveira finishes 59% of wins inside the distance, Gabriel Gonzaga 94%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.