Edson Barboza vs Evan Dunham
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-14-0Record18-9-1
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'10"
75"Reach70,0"
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamXtreme Couture
What's at stake
The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.
If they win+12→ 1694
If they lose-12→ 1670
If they win+12→ 1682
If they lose-12→ 1658
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1724 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1667 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Edson BarbozaEvan Dunham
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Edson Barboza66%
Evan Dunham 34%Elo baseline: 52%
The Combat Edge model makes Edson Barboza a 66% favorite over Evan Dunham in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (52%).
Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1682 vs 1670), separated by just 12 points.
Edson Barboza enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Evan Dunham enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Edson Barboza finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Evan Dunham 50%.
Edson Barboza carries a 5-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.