Combat Edge Intelligence

Edson Barboza vs Gilbert Melendez

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

24-15-0Record22-8-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'9"
75"Reach73,0"
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamSkrap Pack

What's at stake

Gilbert Melendez is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Edson Barboza carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Edson BarbozaNow 1669
If they win+14→ 1683
If they lose-10→ 1659
Gilbert MelendezNow 1740
If they win+10→ 1750
If they lose-14→ 1726

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1725 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1727 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.14
Sig. strikes / min
3.44
45%
Strike accuracy
33%
4.68
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.53
56%
Strike defense
63%
0.43
Takedown avg.
1.64
32%
Takedown accuracy
41%
73%
Takedown defense
72%
0.08
Submission avg.
0.20

Trajectory

Edson BarbozaGilbert Melendez
1650170017502017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

14 (58%)
KO/TKO
12 (55%)
1 (4%)
Submission
0 (0%)
9 (38%)
Decision
10 (45%)

Combat Edge model read

Edson Barboza70%
Gilbert Melendez 30%Elo baseline: 40%

The Combat Edge model makes Edson Barboza a 70% favorite over Gilbert Melendez in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Gilbert Melendez's way (40%).

Gilbert Melendez holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1740 to 1669, a 71-point edge.

Edson Barboza enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Gilbert Melendez enters on a 5-fight loss streak.

Edson Barboza finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Gilbert Melendez 55%.

Edson Barboza carries a 2-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.