Combat Edge Intelligence

Edson Barboza vs Jamie Varner

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

24-15-0Record21-11-1
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'8"
75"ReachTBD
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamArizona Combat Sports

What's at stake

Edson Barboza is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Jamie Varner carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Edson BarbozaNow 1669
If they win+10→ 1679
If they lose-14→ 1655
Jamie VarnerNow 1603
If they win+14→ 1617
If they lose-10→ 1593

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1725 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1616 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.14
Sig. strikes / min
2.92
45%
Strike accuracy
35%
4.68
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
2.55
56%
Strike defense
59%
0.43
Takedown avg.
3.49
32%
Takedown accuracy
54%
73%
Takedown defense
67%
0.08
Submission avg.
0.83

Trajectory

Edson BarbozaJamie Varner
16001650170020132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

14 (58%)
KO/TKO
9 (43%)
1 (4%)
Submission
9 (43%)
9 (38%)
Decision
3 (14%)

Combat Edge model read

Edson Barboza79%
Jamie Varner 21%Elo baseline: 59%

The Combat Edge model makes Edson Barboza a 79% favorite over Jamie Varner in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (59%).

Edson Barboza holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1669 to 1603, a 66-point edge.

Edson Barboza enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Jamie Varner enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Edson Barboza finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Jamie Varner 86%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.