Edson Barboza vs Jamie Varner
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-15-0Record21-11-1
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'8"
75"ReachTBD
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamArizona Combat Sports
What's at stake
Edson Barboza is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +10 while a loss costs more — Jamie Varner carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+10→ 1679
If they lose-14→ 1655
If they win+14→ 1616
If they lose-10→ 1592
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1726 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1611 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Tracked UFC statistics may not cover a fighter's full career. Unavailable measurements are not zero.
Elo Trajectory
Edson BarbozaJamie Varner
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Edson Barboza72%
Jamie Varner 28%Elo baseline: 60%
The Combat Edge model makes Edson Barboza a 72% favorite over Jamie Varner in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (60%).
Edson Barboza holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1669 to 1602, a 67-point edge.
Edson Barboza enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Jamie Varner enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Edson Barboza finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Jamie Varner 86%.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.