Edson Barboza vs Kevin Lee
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-14-0Record20-9-0
FeatherweightDivisionWelterweight
5'11"Height5'9"
75"Reach77"
145 lbsWeight170 lbs
American Top TeamTeamTristar Gym
What's at stake
Kevin Lee is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Edson Barboza carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+13→ 1695
If they lose-11→ 1671
If they win+11→ 1722
If they lose-13→ 1698
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1724 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1710 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Edson BarbozaKevin Lee
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Kevin Lee66%
Edson Barboza 34%Elo baseline: 54%
The Combat Edge model makes Kevin Lee a 66% favorite over Edson Barboza in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (54%).
Kevin Lee holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1711 to 1682, a 29-point edge.
Edson Barboza enters on a 3-fight loss streak.
Edson Barboza finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Kevin Lee 60%.
Kevin Lee carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.