Combat Edge Intelligence

Edson Barboza vs Khabib Nurmagomedov

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

Compare any two fighters →

Tale of the tape

24-14-0Record29-0-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'10"
75"Reach70"
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamFightspirit Team

What's at stake

Khabib Nurmagomedov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +6 while a loss costs more — Edson Barboza carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Edson BarbozaNow 1682
If they win+18→ 1700
If they lose-6→ 1676
Khabib NurmagomedovNow 1890
If they win+6→ 1896
If they lose-18→ 1872

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1724 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1722 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.14
Sig. strikes / min
4.10
45%
Strike accuracy
49%
4.68
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.75
56%
Strike defense
65%
0.43
Takedown avg.
5.32
32%
Takedown accuracy
48%
73%
Takedown defense
85%
0.08
Submission avg.
0.79

Trajectory

Edson BarbozaKhabib Nurmagomedov
1700175018001850190020182019202020212022202320242025

Win method breakdown

14 (58%)
KO/TKO
8 (28%)
1 (4%)
Submission
11 (38%)
9 (38%)
Decision
10 (34%)

Combat Edge model read

Khabib Nurmagomedov84%
Edson Barboza 16%Elo baseline: 77%

The Combat Edge model makes Khabib Nurmagomedov a 84% favorite over Edson Barboza in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (77%).

Khabib Nurmagomedov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1890 to 1682, a 208-point edge.

Edson Barboza enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Khabib Nurmagomedov enters on a 10-fight win streak.

Edson Barboza finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Khabib Nurmagomedov 66%.

Edson Barboza carries a 5-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.