Combat Edge Intelligence

Edson Barboza vs Khabib Nurmagomedov

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

24-15-0Record29-0-0
FeatherweightDivisionLightweight
5'11"Height5'10"
75"Reach70"
145 lbsWeight155 lbs
American Top TeamTeamFightspirit Team

What's at stake

Khabib Nurmagomedov is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +5 while a loss costs more — Edson Barboza carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.

Edson BarbozaNow 1669
If they win+19→ 1688
If they lose-5→ 1664
Khabib NurmagomedovNow 1890
If they win+5→ 1895
If they lose-19→ 1871

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1725 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1722 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.14
Sig. strikes / min
4.10
45%
Strike accuracy
49%
4.68
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
1.75
56%
Strike defense
65%
0.43
Takedown avg.
5.32
32%
Takedown accuracy
48%
73%
Takedown defense
85%
0.08
Submission avg.
0.79

Trajectory

Edson BarbozaKhabib Nurmagomedov
170018001900201820192020202120222023202420252026

Win method breakdown

14 (58%)
KO/TKO
8 (28%)
1 (4%)
Submission
11 (38%)
9 (38%)
Decision
10 (34%)

Combat Edge model read

Khabib Nurmagomedov82%
Edson Barboza 18%Elo baseline: 78%

The Combat Edge model makes Khabib Nurmagomedov a 82% favorite over Edson Barboza in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (78%).

Khabib Nurmagomedov holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1890 to 1669, a 221-point edge.

Edson Barboza enters on a 4-fight loss streak.

Khabib Nurmagomedov enters on a 10-fight win streak.

Edson Barboza finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Khabib Nurmagomedov 66%.

Edson Barboza carries a 5-inch reach advantage.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.