Edson Barboza vs Lerone Murphy
Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.
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Tale of the tape
24-15-0Record17-1-1
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'11"Height5'10"
75"Reach73"
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
American Top TeamTeamManchester Top Team
What's at stake
Lerone Murphy is the Elo favorite, so a win banks only +11 while a loss costs more — Edson Barboza carries the upset premium, with more to gain and less to lose.
If they win+16→ 1685
If they lose-8→ 1661
If they win+11→ 1802
If they lose-21→ 1770
Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.
Opponent quality
Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.
1725 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1703 · 10 fights
Tracked stat edges
Elo Trajectory
Edson BarbozaLerone Murphy
Win method breakdown
Combat Edge model read
Lerone Murphy83%
Edson Barboza 17%Elo baseline: 67%
The Combat Edge model makes Lerone Murphy a 83% favorite over Edson Barboza in a hypothetical meeting — in line with the Elo baseline (67%).
Lerone Murphy holds the higher Combat Edge Elo at 1791 to 1669, a 122-point edge.
Edson Barboza enters on a 4-fight loss streak.
Edson Barboza finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Lerone Murphy 47%.
Edson Barboza and Lerone Murphy share 1 common opponent: Makwan Amirkhani.
Edson Barboza carries a 2-inch reach advantage.
Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.