Combat Edge Intelligence

Edson Barboza vs Lucas Martins

Side-by-side comparison: records, physical profile, Combat Edge Elo, win methods, tracked UFC stats, and common opponents.

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Tale of the tape

24-14-0Record22-7-0
FeatherweightDivisionFeatherweight
5'11"Height6'0"
75"ReachTBD
145 lbsWeight145 lbs
American Top TeamTeamCapital da Luta

What's at stake

The ratings are close, so the Elo swings are near-symmetric — the winner and loser trade a similar number of points either way.

Edson BarbozaNow 1682
If they win+12→ 1694
If they lose-12→ 1670
Lucas MartinsNow 1680
If they win+12→ 1692
If they lose-12→ 1668

Projected for a decision result at current ratings. A finish (KO/TKO or submission) scales the swing up by roughly 20–25%.

Opponent quality

Average pre-fight Elo of each fighter's latest 10 counted pro MMA opponents. Higher means the recent schedule was stronger; later opponent results do not rewrite the score.

1724 · 10 fightsPre-fight Elo1542 · 10 fights

Tracked stat edges

4.14
Sig. strikes / min
2.87
45%
Strike accuracy
36%
4.68
Strikes absorbed / minLower is better
4.14
56%
Strike defense
60%
0.43
Takedown avg.
0
32%
Takedown accuracy
0%
73%
Takedown defense
77%
0.08
Submission avg.
0.49

Trajectory

Edson BarbozaLucas Martins
17002022202320242025

Win method breakdown

14 (58%)
KO/TKO
14 (64%)
1 (4%)
Submission
5 (23%)
9 (38%)
Decision
3 (14%)

Combat Edge model read

Lucas Martins53%
Edson Barboza 47%Elo baseline: 50%

The Combat Edge model makes Lucas Martins a 53% favorite over Edson Barboza in a hypothetical meeting — an upset call against the Elo baseline, which leans Edson Barboza's way (50%).

Their Combat Edge Elo ratings are nearly level (1682 vs 1680), separated by just 2 points.

Edson Barboza enters on a 3-fight loss streak.

Edson Barboza finishes 63% of wins inside the distance, Lucas Martins 86%.

Model estimate for a hypothetical bout, generated from Combat Edge Elo, form, and career stats. Not a betting recommendation.